Preamble

ARID LAND GEOGRAPHY Vol. 48 No. 7 Jul. 2025

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation and Driving Forces of High-Quality Urbanization Development in the Jiziwan Metropolitan Area of the Yellow River

WU Zhiping¹, JIANG Min¹, FU Jianxin²,³,⁴

¹School of Geographical Sciences, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong, Shanxi, China
²Institute of Urban and Regional Development, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong, Shanxi, China
³Shanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Security in Fenhe River Basin, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong, Shanxi, China
⁴Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong, Shanxi, China

Abstract: Promoting high-quality urban development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River is crucial for establishing a significant growth pole within China's Yellow River Basin. This study focuses on 15 prefecture-level cities in the Jiziwan metropolitan area, developing a comprehensive evaluation index system for high-quality urbanization based on four dimensions: population, economy, society, and ecology. To analyze the spatial and temporal divergence characteristics and driving forces of high-quality urbanization from 2012 to 2021, the study employs the entropy method, Theil index, standard deviation ellipse, and geographic detector research method. The findings reveal the following: (1) The overall level of high-quality urbanization in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River exhibits a fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2021. (2) High-quality urbanization levels in this region show significant spatial disparities, following a "core-edge" distribution pattern. Overall differences in development levels initially rise before falling, with intra-regional disparities being the primary contributor to overall variances in high-quality urbanization. The standard deviation ellipse indicates a spatial distribution directed from "northeast to southwest," with its center of gravity located in Ordos City, highlighting notable spatial clustering. (3) The economic base serves as the dominant factor influencing high-quality urbanization, whereas the market environment, government regulatory capacity, and scientific innovation also play critical supporting roles. This study offers theoretical insights and serves as a reference for promoting high-quality urbanization and coordinated regional development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River.

Keywords: high-quality urbanization; quality measurement; spatial and temporal pattern; geographical detector; Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River

Urbanization is the process of non-agricultural industries agglomerating in cities and rural populations concentrating in towns, representing an important indicator of a country's modernization. China's urbanization rate increased from [missing value] to 66.16%. However, as China's urbanization accelerates, problems such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, social conflicts, and uncoordinated urban-rural development have gradually emerged, seriously constraining high-quality urbanization development in China. Therefore, the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China explicitly proposed accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and vigorously promoting high-quality development. High-quality urbanization development emphasizes not only the expansion of "quantity" but also the enhancement of "quality," and has become the theme of China's sustained and healthy economic and social development and a hot topic in current research.

High-quality urbanization development represents the organic unity of high-quality urban construction, infrastructure, public services, living environments, and urban management. It is people-centered, pursuing civilized, harmonious, livable, and green low-carbon urban development paths. Current research on high-quality urbanization development primarily focuses on conceptual connotations, quality evaluation, internal coordination, and influencing factors. Regarding theoretical connotations: research on the connotation of high-quality urbanization has gradually deepened alongside studies on the theoretical connotation of high-quality economic development, shifting from focusing on urban territorial scale expansion and population migration to concentrating on intensive and efficient urban development and improving population quality through increased employment; and transitioning from traditional urban development drivers characterized by high consumption, high pollution, and high risk to new urban drivers such as new consumption, new business forms, and new ecology. Regarding indicator system construction and evaluation methods: comprehensive evaluation indicator systems have been developed based on administrative or watershed research scales, incorporating dimensions such as urban-rural coordination, infrastructure, green low-carbon development, and development drivers, or based on the new development concept of innovation, coordination, greenness, openness, and sharing. Mathematical methods and models such as the entropy method, spatial analysis, and coupling coordination models have been employed to comprehensively evaluate high-quality urbanization development. Regarding influencing factors: research indicates that multiple factors including population base, location constraints, economic drivers, and government regulation interact to significantly promote high-quality urbanization development.

Current research primarily focuses on differences in high-quality urbanization development between regions, provinces, and cities, while studies measuring high-quality urbanization development levels in metropolitan areas require further supplementation, and the construction of evaluation indicator systems for high-quality urbanization development from different perspectives needs further exploration. In 2019, President Xi Jinping pointed out at the symposium on ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin that the Yellow River Basin holds a vital position in China's economic and social development and ecological security. The "14th Five-Year Plan" outline also explicitly proposed developing and strengthening urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas. As a necessary stage in the formation and development of urban agglomerations, the strategic supporting role of metropolitan areas in high-quality development of urban agglomerations has been clarified. In October 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Outline of the Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development Plan," proposing to build a development dynamic pattern of "one axis, two zones, and five poles" in the Yellow River Basin, among which the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River is one of the "five poles" and a strategic support for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Therefore, research on high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River urgently needs to be strengthened.

This study selects 15 prefecture-level cities in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River as research objects, constructing a high-quality urbanization development evaluation index system from four dimensions: population, economy, society, and ecology. Using the entropy method, Theil index, standard deviation ellipse, and geographic detector research method, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern evolution characteristics and influencing factors of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River from 2012 to 2021, aiming to further enrich the research content and theoretical framework of high-quality urbanization development and provide reference for urban, economic, and social high-quality development in the study area.

1.1 Study Area Overview

The Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River (104°13′~114°23′E, 35°06′~42°50′N) is a critical node in the Yellow River Basin, occupying an important position. Referring to previous research and considering data availability and the actual situation of this study, the research scope is determined to include 15 prefecture-level cities: Taiyuan, Hohhot, Yinchuan, Wuzhong, Zhongwei, Shizuishan, Baotou, Ordos, Wuhai, Bayannur, Yulin, Yan'an, Shuozhou, Xinzhou, and Lüliang [FIGURE:1]. The study area's elevation ranges from 377 to 3505 m, covering parts of the Ningxia Plain, Hetao Plain, and Loess Plateau. The climate is primarily temperate monsoon and temperate continental. In 2021, the study area had a permanent population of 35.6336 million and a GDP of 3,904.261 billion yuan, accounting for 12.68% of the entire Yellow River Basin. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industry values were [missing values] billion yuan, 2,208.019 billion yuan, and 1,492.444 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 56.55% and 38.23% of the total.

1.2 Data Sources

Data primarily come from the China City Statistical Yearbook, statistical yearbooks of each city, and the China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook from 2012 to 2021, as well as statistical bulletins on national economic and social development of each city. Some missing values were filled using interpolation methods.

1.3 Research Methods

1.3.1 Entropy Method

The entropy method is a comprehensive and objective evaluation approach. The calculation formula is:

$$S_{ti} = \sum_{j=1}^{m} w_j x'_{tij}$$

where $S_{ti}$ is the comprehensive index of high-quality urbanization development for city $i$ in year $t$; $w_j$ is the weight of indicator $j$; $x'_{tij}$ is the standardized value of indicator $j$ for city $i$ in year $t$; and $n$ is the number of study units.

1.3.2 Theil Index

The Theil index measures inter-regional and intra-regional disparity levels. The study area is divided into four groups according to provincial administrative divisions: Shanxi Province, Shaanxi Province, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, to analyze inter-group and intra-group differences. The calculation formula is:

$$T = \sum_{i=1}^{n} Y_i \ln\frac{Y_i}{P_i}$$

$$T_{\text{inter}} = \sum_{k=1}^{k} Y_k \ln\frac{Y_k}{P_k}$$

$$T_{\text{intra}} = \sum_{k=1}^{k} \sum_{i=1}^{n_k} Y_i \ln\frac{Y_i}{Y_k}$$

where $T$ is the Theil index, with larger values indicating greater disparities in high-quality urbanization levels; $T_{\text{inter}}$ and $T_{\text{intra}}$ represent inter-regional and intra-regional differences, respectively; $n$ is the number of prefecture-level cities; $k$ is the number of groups; $n_k$ is the number of cities in group $k$; $g_k$ is the comprehensive index of high-quality urbanization for cities in group $k$; $Y_k$ is the proportion of the sum of comprehensive indices for cities in group $k$ relative to the total sum for all cities; and $Y_i$ is the proportion of city $i$'s comprehensive index relative to the total sum for all cities.

1.3.3 Standard Deviation Ellipse

The standard deviation ellipse analyzes the spatial equilibrium state of overall high-quality urbanization development, with the migration center representing the spatial trajectory of regional development. The calculation formula is:

$$\bar{X} = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n} P_{ti}X_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{n} P_{ti}}$$

$$\bar{Y} = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n} P_{ti}Y_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{n} P_{ti}}$$

where $(\bar{X}, \bar{Y})$ represents the longitude and latitude coordinates of the migration center; $(X_i, Y_i)$ are the geographic coordinates of city $i$; and $P_{ti}$ is the high-quality urbanization development index for city $i$ in year $t$.

1.3.4 Geographic Detector

The geographic detector is a statistical method for detecting spatial differentiation and revealing driving factors behind it. Factor detection and interaction detection are used to analyze driving factors of high-quality urbanization development. The calculation formula is:

$$q = 1 - \frac{\sum_{h=1}^{L} N_h\sigma_h^2}{N\sigma^2}$$

where $L$ is the number of cities; $N_h$ and $\sigma_h^2$ are the sample size and variance of subregion $h$, respectively; $N$ and $\sigma^2$ are the sample size and variance of the entire region, respectively; and $q$ represents the explanatory power of influencing factors on high-quality urbanization, with values in [0, 1]. Larger $q$ values indicate stronger explanatory power.

2 Results Analysis

2.1 Temporal Evolution Characteristics

2.1.1 Overall Temporal Evolution of High-Quality Urbanization

From 2012 to 2021, the mean comprehensive index of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River increased from 0.28 to 0.42, with an average annual growth rate of 4.55%, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend and developing toward a better state. This indicates that the Jiziwan metropolitan area's economic development level continuously improved, infrastructure construction gradually perfected, and ecological environmental problems were increasingly addressed [FIGURE:2].

From 2012 to 2021, all dimensional indices of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area showed overall upward trends [FIGURE:3]. Specifically, the economic urbanization index increased from 0.21 to 0.29 (38.15% growth); the social urbanization index increased from 0.26 to 0.36 (38.94% growth); the ecological urbanization index increased from 0.33 to 0.58 (76.35% growth); and the population urbanization index grew only 5.71% from 0.35 to 0.37, with a relatively small increase. The ecological urbanization index showed the most significant improvement, indicating that the Jiziwan metropolitan area's ecological environment quality improved markedly between 2012 and 2021.

From 2012 to 2021, cities with the highest and second-highest comprehensive indices were Taiyuan (0.56) and Ordos (0.55), respectively. Taking Taiyuan and Ordos as examples: Taiyuan is Shanxi's economic, transportation, cultural, educational, and technological innovation center, with complete infrastructure, clear policy advantages, and high population concentration, resulting in higher high-quality urbanization development levels. Ordos, located in the central city of the Hubao-Eyu urban agglomeration, is a strategic resource base. Its leading industries—including energy chemicals, clean energy, new materials, and equipment manufacturing—continue to develop, with不断增强的协同创新能力和不断提升的基础设施建设, making its urbanization level significantly higher than other regions.

2.1.2 Temporal Evolution by City

From 2012 to 2021, high-quality urbanization development levels in all cities of the Jiziwan metropolitan area showed overall upward trends, but with significant inter-city differences. In 2012, the cities with the highest and lowest comprehensive indices were Ordos and Zhongwei, respectively, while in 2021 they became Taiyuan and Zhongwei, with the gap widening from 0.23 to 0.38 [FIGURE:4].

From 2012 to 2021, the highest and lowest population urbanization indices were Wuhai (0.85) and Yan'an (0.11), respectively, with a difference of 0.74. The highest and lowest economic urbanization indices were Taiyuan (0.52) and Zhongwei (0.08), respectively, with the largest difference of 0.44. The highest and lowest social urbanization indices were Ordos (0.58) and Lüliang (0.18), respectively. The highest and lowest ecological urbanization indices were Ordos (0.78) and Yan'an (0.30), respectively [TABLE:2].

2.2 Spatial Pattern Evolution

2.2.1 Spatial Distribution Pattern Evolution

Using the equal interval classification method in ArcGIS 10.8, the comprehensive index of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area was divided into five types: high level (>0.51), relatively high level (0.41-0.50), medium level (0.31-0.40), relatively low level (0.21-0.30), and low level (<0.20) [FIGURE:5].

From 2012 to 2021, the overall level of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area improved significantly. Between 2012 and 2021, the number of high-level and relatively high-level cities increased by 2 each, medium-level cities decreased by 1, relatively low-level cities increased by 1, and low-level cities decreased by 2. In 2012, only Taiyuan, Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos were at medium level, while all other cities were at relatively low or low levels. By 2016, Taiyuan, Hohhot, and Ordos rose to relatively high level, while Yinchuan and Yulin improved to medium level. By 2021, Taiyuan and Ordos rose to high level, and Yulin improved to relatively high level.

Cities at relatively high level and above were mainly provincial capitals and central cities of the Hubao-Eyu urban agglomeration. Among them, Taiyuan, Hohhot, and Yinchuan, as provincial capitals, possess advantages in politics, economy, and policy. Through continuously optimizing industrial structure and improving innovation capacity, they gradually widened the gap with surrounding cities. The Hubao-Eyu urban agglomeration, as one of the regional urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin, is the economic重心区 and high-level urbanization area of the Jiziwan metropolitan area, with a population of 25.42 million and a GDP of 2,204.019 billion yuan in 2021, accounting for 71.37% and 75.68% of the Jiziwan metropolitan area, respectively. The urban agglomeration's urbanization rate was 75.68%, higher than the Jiziwan metropolitan area's 71.37%, with the urban agglomeration taking shape and significant complementarity and cooperation potential between cities.

From 2012 to 2021, cities at relatively low and low levels were mainly Bayannur, Zhongwei, and Xinzhou, which had poor development foundations and no obvious advantages, gradually becoming marginalized in the urbanization process. Overall, from 2012 to 2021, the spatial distribution of high-quality urbanization development levels in the Jiziwan metropolitan area basically formed a "core-edge" pattern, with Taiyuan and Ordos becoming the core areas and Bayannur, Zhongwei, and Xinzhou becoming the peripheral areas.

2.2.2 Theil Index Analysis

From 2012 to 2021, the Theil index of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area showed a fluctuating upward trend, reaching a peak in 2016 before declining continuously, with overall differences first increasing then decreasing [TABLE:3]. Intra-regional disparities were the main source of overall spatial differences in high-quality urbanization development, with contribution rates of intra-regional differences basically above 75%. All four provincial regions exhibited polarization phenomena, with differences within each province contributing most to overall disparities.

2.2.3 Standard Deviation Ellipse Analysis

From 2012 to 2021, the standard deviation ellipse of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area showed a "northeast-southwest" distribution pattern, with the ellipse area decreasing and spatial clustering characteristics becoming more pronounced. The center of gravity was located in Ordos City, indicating that the Hubao-Eyu urban agglomeration's high-quality urbanization development level was overall higher than surrounding areas [FIGURE:6].

Specifically, from 2012 to 2021, the center of gravity gradually moved westward, indicating that the western region's high-quality urbanization development level continuously improved and the gap with the eastern region gradually narrowed. From 2012 to 2016, the center of gravity moved southeastward, related to improved urbanization quality in Taiyuan and its surrounding areas. From 2016 to 2021, the center of gravity moved northwestward, related to the implementation of the "returning farmland to forest" program in Shanxi Province.

From 2012 to 2021, the population urbanization standard deviation ellipse area first increased then decreased, indicating population distribution changed from dispersed to concentrated. The seventh national census data shows that within Shanxi Province, population continued to concentrate in Taiyuan, while Yinchuan's population proportion increased by 8.07% compared to the sixth census. The economic urbanization center of gravity moved overall southeastward, consistent with the direction of high-quality urbanization development center migration, indicating that the southeast's economic volume was higher than the northwest. The social urbanization center of gravity was located in Ordos City and gradually moved southwestward, with its ellipse area decreasing, indicating that infrastructure construction gradually showed agglomeration characteristics. The ecological urbanization center of gravity was located in Ordos City, first moving northeast then southwest, with its ellipse area first decreasing then increasing, indicating that ecological protection changed from concentrated to dispersed, with overall ecological environment improvement.

2.3 Driving Factor Analysis

2.3.1 Selection of Influencing Factors

High-quality urbanization development levels result from multiple interacting factors. Drawing on existing literature and considering data availability, an indicator system was constructed including economic base, government regulation capacity, market environment, human capital, industrial structure, scientific innovation capacity, and openness degree [TABLE:4]. Using the natural breaks method in ArcGIS 10.8, independent variables X were classified, and then the geographic detector was applied to detect driving forces of high-quality urbanization development.

2.3.2 Analysis of Influencing Factors

From 2012 to 2021, the main influencing factors of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area were GDP, local general public budget revenue, and total retail sales of consumer goods, with q-values of 0.73, 0.71, and 0.69, respectively. In 2016, the main influencing factors added financial institution loan balances. In 2021, the main influencing factors were: financial institution loan balances, total retail sales of consumer goods, GDP, local general public budget revenue, and education and science and technology expenditure [TABLE:5]. Overall, the economic base is the dominant factor, while market environment, government regulation capacity, and scientific innovation capacity play important roles. Industrial structure and openness degree have weaker impacts.

Taking 2021 as an example, interaction detection shows that the interaction between any two factors enhances their impact on high-quality urbanization development, with interaction values all greater than single-factor detection values and q-values mostly above 0.8 [FIGURE:8]. Financial institution loan balances, GDP, local general public budget revenue, and total retail sales of consumer goods have strong interactions with other detection factors.

The size of financial institution loan balances directly reflects consumers' borrowing demand and consumption capacity, serving as not only a core indicator of financial industry development but also an important basis for measuring urban development potential and comprehensive strength. With socioeconomic development and improved living standards in the study area, financial institution loan balances continuously increased from 281.5804 billion yuan in 2012 to 380.7449 billion yuan in 2016 and 491.0264 billion yuan in 2021, boosting high-quality urbanization development through financial institution loans. Under the administrative management system, cities gradually formed a gradient "hierarchical system" in resource agglomeration, development authority, policy formulation, and policy inclination. Provincial capitals and central cities of national-level urban agglomerations enjoyed priority access to national and local policies, optimized market access procedures, improved government convenience, and created livable urban environments, enhancing the soft power of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area.

Improving scientific innovation capacity can enhance resource utilization efficiency, break through resource constraints, foster new industrial forms and markets, achieve efficient and rational resource allocation and new-old kinetic energy conversion, and accelerate industrial structure adjustment. Scientific innovation has spatial positive correlation with high-quality development of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas. Most cities in the Jiziwan metropolitan area are resource-based cities with industries dominated by equipment manufacturing and traditional energy chemicals, showing serious homogenization. Resource endowments determine leading industries, causing regions and cities to fall into the "resource curse" trap, making industrial structure upgrading difficult and resulting in relatively low high-quality development levels.

3 Discussion

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal changes and driving forces of high-quality urbanization development in 15 prefecture-level cities of the Jiziwan metropolitan area. Geographic detection revealed that the economic base is the fundamental and supporting element of high-quality urbanization development, consistent with previous research conclusions. The Jiziwan metropolitan area, based on advantageous mineral and energy resources, accounted for 11.98% of the entire Yellow River Basin's GDP in 2021. During the study period, the economic urbanization center of gravity moved overall southeastward, consistent with the spatial distribution direction of city-level economic development in the Yellow River Basin. The standard deviation ellipse showed a "northeast-southwest" orientation, with its center of gravity in Ordos City, indicating obvious spatial clustering characteristics.

However, influencing factors of high-quality urbanization development are complex and comprehensive. In this study, the social urbanization center of gravity gradually moved southwestward in all three stages, indicating higher social urbanization quality indices in the southwest direction. The number of western cities ranking in the top 5 for social urbanization index increased from 1 in 2012 to 2 in 2021, with Ordos's social urbanization index continuously rising from second place in 2012 to first place in 2021. However, Ordos's permanent population and urban population in 2021 were only about 40% of Taiyuan's, yet its per capita road area was 1.5 times that of Taiyuan, which may cause certain errors in the research results. Therefore, more comprehensive indicators should be selected in future research to measure social urbanization.

Future research should emphasize comprehensiveness in indicator selection. The focus should be on cross-regional, urban infrastructure co-construction, sharing, and interconnectivity, strengthening planning and co-construction of public infrastructure such as highways in the Jiziwan metropolitan area, and researching social security and welfare policy sharing.

4 Conclusions and Recommendations

4.1 Conclusions

From 2012 to 2021, the mean comprehensive index of high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area of the Yellow River increased from 0.28 to 0.42, showing a fluctuating upward trend with overall significant improvement.

The high-quality urbanization development level in the Jiziwan metropolitan area exhibits a "core-edge" spatial distribution pattern, with Taiyuan and Ordos becoming the core areas and Bayannur, Zhongwei, and Xinzhou becoming the peripheral areas. Overall differences in development levels show a trend of first rising then falling, with intra-regional differences being the main source of overall differences. The standard deviation ellipse shows a "northeast-southwest" spatial distribution direction, with its center of gravity in Ordos City, indicating obvious spatial clustering characteristics.

The economic base is the dominant factor influencing high-quality urbanization development in the Jiziwan metropolitan area, while the market environment, government regulation capacity, and scientific innovation capacity play important roles. Interaction detection shows that interactions between any two factors enhance their impact on high-quality urbanization development.

4.2 Recommendations

The Jiziwan metropolitan area should strengthen financial development in provincial capitals and central cities to enhance support for ecological and real economies, improving financial services' effectiveness in supporting high-quality urbanization development. Flexible and reasonable government regulation policies should be adopted, utilizing the spillover effects of provincial capitals and central cities to gradually improve peripheral cities' high-quality development levels. Administrative barriers should be broken, market systems and cooperation mechanisms innovated, and regional collaborative development achieved. Top-level design should be optimized to gradually establish contractual governance mechanisms and strengthen cooperation between localities, provinces, and cities.

Scientific innovation capacity in provincial capitals should be enhanced to strengthen internal development momentum, gradually promoting industrial structure diversification and advancement. Through the "trickle-down effect," radiation-driven effects on peripheral cities should be achieved to realize regional collaborative and innovative development. Through the "siphon effect" of provincial capitals on neighboring areas, talent introduction and household registration system reforms should be advanced to gradually improve population agglomeration capacity. Talent evaluation incentive mechanisms and service guarantee systems should be improved to optimize innovation and entrepreneurship conditions and living environments for various talents. Various high-level talents should be cultivated, with emphasis on introducing and training urgently needed talents for energy and chemical industries. Exchange and cooperation of talent should be strengthened by encouraging exchanges of cadres for temporary positions between major cities. The region should deeply integrate into the "Belt and Road" initiative and fully utilize the national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin to build a high-level opening-up platform.

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